Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Greene doubled to right, McGonigle scored and Torres scored.6–8
- 9Torres singled to right, Lee scored, McGonigle to third.4–8
- 8Kiner-Falefa singled to right, Yoshida scored and Story scored.3–8
- 7Narváez reached on infield single to second, Rafaela scored.3–6
- 7Rafaela singled to right, Story scored and Yoshida scored, Rafaela to second, Durbin out at home on runner's fielder's choice.3–5
- 6Anthony singled to center, Narváez scored.3–3
- 6Jones singled to center, Greene scored, Dingler to third.3–2
- 4Lee singled to center, Dingler scored, Carpenter to second.2–2
- 3Rogers singled to left, Vierling scored.1–2
- 2Abreu walked, Mayer scored, Anthony to second, Narváez to third.0–2
- 2Narváez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Durbin scored on throwing error by pitcher Flaherty, Mayer to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML DET +113 / BOS -136
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- DET +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +27 Elo | BOS 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–9 | Road vs home | 4–524th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 14th of 301509 | Elo rating | 151412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–12 | 6–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11–2 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 11–11 BOS in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.