Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8McMahon homered to left (372 feet), Rice scored.2–4
- 8Pasquantino homered to right (339 feet).2–2
- 6Pasquantino grounded out to first, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.1–2
- 4Rice homered to right (364 feet), Bellinger scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML KC +149 / NYY -181
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -160
- KC +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +66 Elo | NYY 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 5–517th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 148924th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15373rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–8 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–13 | 8–9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–18 NYY in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 23.