Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Yoan MoncadaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rice hit sacrifice fly to left, Grichuk scored.7–1
- 8Moncada homered to right (351 feet).7–0
- 6Moncada singled to right, Grissom scored and Soler scored, O'Hoppe to second.6–0
- 4Peraza homered to left (396 feet).4–0
- 1Soler homered to left (399 feet).3–0
- 1Adell homered to center (445 feet).2–0
- 1Trout homered to center (432 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML LAA +144 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 65.9%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -155
- LAA +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −6 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +114 Elo | NYY 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 30 |
| 8th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15442nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–8 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 7–7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–10 NYY in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.