Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Baldwin singled to center, Harris II scored.8–2
- 5Dubón doubled to left, Riley scored and Albies scored.7–2
- 3Riley scored on error, Dubón safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Neto, Dubón safe at second on error.5–2
- 3Olson homered to center (399 feet), Baldwin scored.4–2
- 2O'Hoppe walked, Moncada scored, Lowe to second, Adell to third.2–2
- 2Soler homered to left center (402 feet).2–1
- 2Heim hit a ground rule double, Riley scored.2–0
- 1Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -126 / LAA +104
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −13 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +48 Elo | ATL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.5 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.3 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 9th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 30 |
| 24th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15137th of 30 |
| 12th of 301513 | Elo rating | 145527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–3 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | — |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–5 LAA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.