Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olson homered to left center (426 feet).2–0
- 9Albies homered to right (382 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 50%
- ML ATL -112 / ARI -108
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 46.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -102
- ARI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +7 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +21 Elo | ARI 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.9 | Runs scored | 3.919th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 6.328th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+3.9 | Margin | −2.429th of 30 |
| 1st of 281–0 | Road vs home | 3–110th of 28 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15264th of 30 |
| 10th of 301514 | Elo rating | 150315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–6 | 4–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–6 | 4–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 11–9 ARI in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.