Athletics at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-4
- Jacob LopezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dubón singled to left, Yastrzemski scored.0–4
- 1Dubón singled to right, Baldwin and Olson scored, White to third.0–3
- 1Olson doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Baldwin to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATH +104 / ATL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.4 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +6 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +48 Elo | ATL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 20th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 2.02nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.7 | Margin | +2.35th of 30 |
| 14th of 150–3 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 16 |
| 3rd of 301532 | Opponent Elo | 150415th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 150813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  ATH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 90–72 | 79–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 42–61 |
| Underdog | 71–48 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 82–80 | 78–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–4 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
