Athletics at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-3, 4 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Olson singled to right, Baldwin scored.1–5
- 4Baldwin doubled to center, Dubón scored and Smith scored.1–4
- 4Langeliers homered to left (355 feet).1–2
- 2Baldwin singled to left, Albies scored and Smith scored, Acuña Jr. to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 67%
- ML ATH +189 / ATL -232
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.4%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -202
- ATH +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +27 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 1.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +73 Elo | ATL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.819th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 2.22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +1.67th of 30 |
| 13th of 171–4 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 17 |
| 6th of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 149421st of 30 |
| 25th of 301481 | Elo rating | 150814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | — | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 0–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 0–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 6–5 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
