Athletics at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Acuña Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Smith scored, Dubón to third.5–2
- 5Langeliers homered to left (404 feet).5–1
- 4Ibáñez singled to left, Muncy scored.4–1
- 2Wilson hit a ground rule double, Ibáñez scored and Butler scored, Clarke to third.3–1
- 2Ibáñez singled to left, Muncy scored.1–1
- 1Baldwin homered to center (410 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML ATH +129 / ATL -156
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- ATH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.1 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −15 | ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Jose Suarez: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +53 Elo | ATL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 1.52nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +2.82nd of 30 |
| 16th of 170–4 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 17 |
| 5th of 301528 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 151012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  ATH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 90–72 | 79–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 42–61 |
| Underdog | 71–48 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 82–80 | 78–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–5 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
