Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Jordan LawlarBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas doubled to right, Moreno scored.17–2
- 9Yastrzemski doubled to left, Olson scored.17–1
- 9Farmer hit sacrifice fly to left, Baldwin scored.16–1
- 9Olson doubled to center, Dubón scored, Baldwin to third.15–1
- 9Mateo homered to left (353 feet), Harris II scored.14–1
- 6Yastrzemski grounded out to first, Baldwin scored, Riley to second, Olson to third.12–1
- 6Dubón homered to left center (413 feet).11–1
- 5Harris II doubled to left, Albies scored and Yastrzemski scored.10–1
- 5Albies singled to left, Riley scored, Yastrzemski to second.8–1
- 5Riley doubled to left, Baldwin scored and Olson scored.7–1
- 5Olson doubled to right, Dubón scored, Baldwin to third.5–1
- 5Baldwin grounded into fielder's choice to third, Smith scored, Acuña Jr. out at second, Dubón to third.4–1
- 5Acuña Jr. walked, Albies scored, Dubón to second, Smith to third.3–1
- 3Lawlar homered to left center (424 feet).2–1
- 3Smith homered to right center (430 feet).2–0
- 1Olson homered to center (430 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML ATL -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 48.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −4 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +9 Elo | ATL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.214th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15264th of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 150715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | — | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 0–6 | 3–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–6 | 3–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–9 ARI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.