Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dubón homered to left (372 feet).2–6
- 5Adell homered to left center (411 feet), Soler scored.1–6
- 4Teodosio reached on infield single to shortstop, O'Hoppe scored, Moncada to second, Peraza to third.1–4
- 4Moncada hit by pitch, Candelario scored, Peraza to second, O'Hoppe to third.1–3
- 4O'Hoppe walked, Soler scored, Candelario to second, Adell to third.1–2
- 1Neto homered to left (400 feet).1–1
- 1Baldwin homered to right center (397 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML ATL -181 / LAA +149
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -160
- LAA +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 3.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | +14 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 1.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +51 Elo | ATL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 11th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15167th of 30 |
| 11th of 301513 | Elo rating | 145427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | — |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–4 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.