Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4
- Emerson HancockPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 1Neto homered to left center (443 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML SEA -158 / LAA +131
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.8%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -141
- LAA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −25 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 1.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +69 Elo | SEA 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.821st of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 29 |
| 6th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 15188th of 30 |
| 7th of 301524 | Elo rating | 145227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 23–17 LAA in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 40.