Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Soler hit sacrifice fly to right, Trout scored.3–1
- 10Naylor singled to right, Young scored and Rodríguez scored.3–0
- 10Young tripled to right, Raley scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -157 / LAA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.5%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -141
- LAA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 3.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −19 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +81 Elo | SEA 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 4th of 301528 | Opponent Elo | 15178th of 30 |
| 7th of 301522 | Elo rating | 145328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–5 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 22–17 LAA in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 39.