Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Marte doubled to right, Barrosa scored.5–6
- 9Baldwin singled to center, Mateo scored, Acuña Jr. to second.5–5
- 7Carroll tripled to right, Barrosa scored.4–5
- 7Baldwin grounded out to second, Mateo scored, Acuña Jr. to second.4–4
- 6Arenado singled to center, Carroll scored.3–4
- 5Baldwin singled to left, Mateo scored, Acuña Jr. to second.3–3
- 5Dubón scored on Pfaadt wild pitch.2–3
- 5Dubón scored on Pfaadt wild pitch.2–3
- 4Vargas tripled to right, Carroll scored and Arenado scored.1–3
- 1Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored.1–1
- 1Baldwin homered to right center (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML ATL -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 49.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −10 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +3 Elo | ATL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.227th of 30 |
| 1st of 301.8 | Runs allowed | 5.224th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.1 | Margin | −2.028th of 30 |
| 4th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 4–27th of 29 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15264th of 30 |
| 11th of 301514 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–2 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–8 | 4–4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8 | 4–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 12–10 ARI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.