Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Dominic SmithBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-3
- Michael SorokaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 2Fernandez reached on bunt single to pitcher, Moreno scored on throwing error by pitcher Elder and Arenado scored on error, Fernandez to second.1–2
- 2Smith singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Smith to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ATL -107 / ARI -113
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 46.4%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -103
- ATL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −22 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.425th of 30 |
| 1st of 301.8 | Runs allowed | 5.827th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.6 | Margin | −2.429th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 29 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15274th of 30 |
| 10th of 301515 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–7 | 4–3–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7 | 4–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 12–9 ARI in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.