Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- George KlassenPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to left, Frazier scored.7–8
- 10O'Hoppe hit sacrifice fly to center, Adell scored.7–7
- 10Arozarena singled to right, Rodríguez scored.7–6
- 9Rodríguez singled to left, Raleigh scored.6–6
- 5Frazier singled to left, Adell scored.5–6
- 5Adell singled to left, Candelario scored.5–5
- 5Young homered to right (394 feet), Arozarena scored and Crawford scored.5–4
- 4Schanuel reached on infield single to shortstop, O'Hoppe scored, Neto to second.2–4
- 4Lowe scored on error, Neto safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Rivas, O'Hoppe safe at third on error.2–3
- 3Soler singled to right, Trout scored.2–2
- 2Rivas singled to center, Arozarena scored and Young scored, Garver to second.2–1
- 1Soler singled to left, Neto scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML SEA -168 / LAA +139
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.1%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -150
- LAA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +13 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: George Klassen (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +43 Elo | SEA 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 29 |
| 11th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15186th of 30 |
| 7th of 301522 | Elo rating | 145327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 23–18 LAA in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 41.