Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olson grounded into double play, third to first, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to second, Baldwin out at third.7–2
- 9Baldwin singled to center, Yastrzemski scored, Acuña Jr. to second.6–2
- 8Albies homered to right center (379 feet).5–2
- 4Heim singled to left, Dubón scored.4–2
- 4White hit sacrifice fly to center, Riley scored, Dubón to third.3–2
- 4Riley singled to right, Olson scored.2–2
- 2White doubled to left, Olson scored.1–2
- 1Soler homered to left (366 feet), Trout scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -126 / LAA +104
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | 0 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +52 Elo | ATL 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.5 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–13rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15157th of 30 |
| 12th of 301510 | Elo rating | 145727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–3 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | — |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–5 LAA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.