Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz walked, Friedl scored on Silseth wild pitch, McLain to third on wild pitch by Silseth.3–7
- 8Marte scored on Silseth wild pitch, Friedl to third on wild pitch by Silseth.3–6
- 8Marte scored on Silseth wild pitch, Friedl to third on wild pitch by Silseth.3–6
- 4Trout doubled to left, Neto scored and Moncada scored.3–5
- 3Schanuel grounded out to shortstop, Neto scored, Adell to second, Trout to third.1–5
- 2Steer homered to left (383 feet).0–5
- 1Lowe doubled to right, De La Cruz scored, Suárez scored and Stewart scored.0–4
- 1Steer scored on error, Stewart safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Schanuel, De La Cruz safe at third on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML LAA +109 / CIN -131
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 57.3%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −3 | LAA: George Klassen: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +51 Elo | CIN 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.115th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 3–425th of 30 |
| 7th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149617th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 149818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–7 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 7–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–8 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.