Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz homered to right center (384 feet).10–2
- 8Soler homered to left center (418 feet), Frazier scored, Neto scored and Trout scored.10–1
- 8Trout walked, O'Hoppe scored, Neto to second, Frazier to third.6–1
- 6Lowe homered to right (356 feet).5–1
- 5Friedl grounded out to first, Benson scored, Hayes to second, Stephenson to third.4–1
- 4Neto homered to center (417 feet), Frazier scored.4–0
- 3Moncada reached on infield single to shortstop, Soler scored.2–0
- 2Frazier walked, Moncada scored, O'Hoppe to second, Lowe to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 62%
- ML LAA +149 / CIN -181
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 62.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -160
- LAA +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +2 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +85 Elo | CIN 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 24th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 3–315th of 30 |
| 7th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 27th of 301452 | Elo rating | 150215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–7 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 6–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 1–8 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.