Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Oswald PerazaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz homered to center (405 feet), Myers scored and Friedl scored.9–6
- 8De La Cruz scored on Bachman wild pitch and Stewart scored on Bachman wild pitch, Benson to second on wild pitch by Bachman, Benson safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Schanuel.9–3
- 8De La Cruz scored on Bachman wild pitch and Stewart scored on Bachman wild pitch, Benson to second on wild pitch by Bachman, Benson safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Schanuel.9–3
- 8Stewart singled to center, Friedl scored, De La Cruz to third.9–1
- 8Schanuel walked, Trout scored, Grissom to second, Soler to third.9–0
- 7Peraza grounded out to second, Schanuel scored, O'Hoppe to third.8–0
- 4Adell grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Teodosio scored, Trout to second, Neto out at third.7–0
- 4Peraza homered to left (383 feet).6–0
- 2Soler sacrificed into double play, center to catcher to third, Trout scored, Adell thrown out at third.5–0
- 2Trout doubled to left, Neto scored.4–0
- 1O'Hoppe singled to center, Grissom scored, Schanuel to third.3–0
- 1Schanuel singled to left, Adell scored and Trout scored, Grissom to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML LAA -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 43.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | 0 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +46 Elo | CIN 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.228th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 30 |
| 9th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149319th of 30 |
| 27th of 301454 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–8 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 8–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–9 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.