New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching8.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Aranda grounded into fielder's choice to second, Simpson scored, Díaz safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Chisholm Jr., Walls to third.4–5
- 10Walls reached on bunt single to pitcher, Mullins scored, Simpson to third.4–4
- 10Caballero singled to center, Grichuk scored.4–3
- 8Díaz reached on infield single to first, Simpson scored.3–3
- 8Caballero doubled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored and Grichuk scored.3–2
- 6Aranda hit sacrifice fly to left, Walls scored.1–2
- 2DeLuca singled to right, Caminero scored.1–1
- 2Wells homered to right (396 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML NYY -175 / TB +144
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.5%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -155
- TB +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +7 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +31 Elo | NYY 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 151010th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301545 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–4 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–3 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7–2 | 8–3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 21–19 TB in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 40.