Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Amed RosarioBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rosario homered to left (414 feet), Rice scored and Grichuk scored.3–5
- 8Stanton singled to center, Bellinger scored, Rice to second.3–2
- 3Soderstrom doubled, Kurtz scored.3–1
- 3Kurtz doubled to center, McNeil scored and Muncy scored.2–1
- 2Rosario homered to left (399 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 70%
- ML ATH +218 / NYY -271
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 65.6%, market 69.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -232
- ATH +232 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.1 – 4.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +12 | ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +112 Elo | NYY 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 69.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 2.41st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +2.82nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 30 |
| 7th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–4 | 8–1 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 8–1 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–14 NYY in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.