Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rooker homered to left (364 feet), Langeliers scored and Soderstrom scored.10–12
- 10Correa singled to left, Allen scored, Correa to second, Altuve to third.10–9
- 8Smith singled to center, Allen scored and Altuve scored, Alvarez to second.9–9
- 8Altuve doubled to left, Loperfido scored, Allen to third.7–9
- 8Meyers homered to left (393 feet).6–9
- 7Cortes singled to right, Muncy scored, McNeil to third.5–9
- 7McNeil singled to center, Butler scored, Muncy to second.5–8
- 7Rooker homered to left (365 feet), Soderstrom scored.5–7
- 7Walker homered to left center (397 feet), Correa scored.5–5
- 5Rooker hit sacrifice fly to right, Soderstrom scored.3–5
- 5Soderstrom tripled to right, McNeil scored, Cortes scored and Kurtz scored.3–4
- 5Cortes doubled to right, Muncy scored, McNeil to third.3–1
- 5Smith singled to left, Correa scored, Smith out stretching at second.3–0
- 5Alvarez homered to right center (399 feet), Altuve scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML HOU -133 / ATH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.4%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -120
- ATH +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.2 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +10 Elo | HOU 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.7 | Runs scored | 3.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −1.827th of 30 |
| 11th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 29 |
| 26th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 15187th of 30 |
| 12th of 301512 | Elo rating | 147825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 24–17 ATH in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 41.