Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz doubled to right, Smith scored.4–11
- 9Meyers hit sacrifice fly to center, Allen scored.3–11
- 7Matthews walked, Allen scored, Diaz to second, Meyers to third.2–11
- 5Soderstrom doubled to center, Langeliers scored.1–11
- 4Muncy homered to left (404 feet).1–10
- 4Butler homered to left (354 feet), Rooker scored and Wilson scored.1–9
- 4Wilson singled to center, Soderstrom scored, Rooker to third.1–6
- 4Soderstrom reached on infield single to first, Clarke scored.1–5
- 3Muncy doubled to center, Butler scored and Rooker scored.1–4
- 3Butler singled to left, Soderstrom scored, Rooker to second.1–2
- 3Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to right, Diaz scored, Peña to third.1–1
- 2Clarke singled to left, Muncy scored, McNeil to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML HOU -110 / ATH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- ATH: Elo 49.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -100
- HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −1 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +1 Elo | HOU 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.4 | Runs scored | 2.830th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −1.726th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 15225th of 30 |
| 12th of 301511 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | — |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 23–16 ATH in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 39.