Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Athletics- Max MuncyBatting2-4
- Luis MoralesPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith homered to left center (402 feet).11–0
- 6Alvarez singled to right, Diaz scored, Vázquez to third.10–0
- 6Vázquez doubled to right, Loperfido scored, Diaz to third.9–0
- 6Loperfido singled to center, Walker scored.8–0
- 4Diaz singled to center, Walker scored and Loperfido scored.7–0
- 4Loperfido hit a ground rule double, Correa scored, Walker to third.5–0
- 3Vázquez doubled to left, Meyers scored.4–0
- 3Walker homered to left center (383 feet).3–0
- 1Walker singled to right, Alvarez scored.2–0
- 1Altuve singled to center, Peña scored, Alvarez to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 52%
- ML HOU -102 / ATH -118
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- ATH: Elo 51.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- ATH -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +10 | HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Morales: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +11 Elo | ATH 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.416th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 25th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 15206th of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 148224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 23–17 ATH in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 40.