Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Matt ShawBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Shaw homered to left (366 feet).4–6
- 7Aranda homered to right center (403 feet), Williamson scored.3–6
- 6Busch hit sacrifice fly to center, Happ scored.3–4
- 3Caminero homered to left (401 feet).2–4
- 2Díaz reached on infield single to shortstop, Walls scored on throwing error by shortstop Swanson, Díaz to second.2–3
- 2Mullins homered to right (367 feet), Simpson scored.2–2
- 2Hoerner singled to left, Busch and Swanson scored, Amaya to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML CHC +104 / TB -126
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- TB: Elo 47.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +7 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +16 Elo | CHC 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.627th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.618th of 30 |
| 27th of 301472 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 6th of 301524 | Elo rating | 149719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4–1 | 6–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–1 | 6–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–4 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.