Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rooker hit sacrifice fly to center, Kurtz scored, Langeliers to third.3–2
- 4Muncy scored on Warren wild pitch, Cortes to second on wild pitch, McNeil to third on wild pitch.2–2
- 4Muncy scored on Warren wild pitch, Cortes to second on wild pitch by Warren, McNeil to third on wild pitch by Warren.2–2
- 4McNeil singled to left, Butler scored, Muncy to second.1–2
- 1Escarra walked, Judge scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, Bellinger to third.0–2
- 1Bellinger singled to left, Grisham scored, Judge to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML ATH +169 / NYY -207
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -181
- ATH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.3 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −10 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +81 Elo | NYY 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 2.52nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +2.72nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 3–12nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 25th of 301479 | Elo rating | 15502nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 7–1 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5–1 | 4–4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–15 NYY in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 20.