Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Moises BallesterosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mason EnglertPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ballesteros homered to right (379 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.9–2
- 8Vilade reached on infield single to pitcher, Díaz scored, Aranda to third.7–2
- 8Aranda doubled to center, Palacios scored, Díaz to third.7–1
- 8Hoerner singled to left, Swanson scored, Conforto to second.7–0
- 7Crow-Armstrong homered to right (389 feet).6–0
- 6Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Ballesteros scored, Shaw out at second, Conforto to third.5–0
- 3Ballesteros hit sacrifice fly to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.4–0
- 3Bregman scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes, Crow-Armstrong stole third.3–0
- 3Bregman scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes, Crow-Armstrong stole third.3–0
- 2Shaw doubled to left, Conforto scored.2–0
- 2Conforto singled to right, Swanson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML CHC +100 / TB -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- TB: Elo 49.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Mason Englert: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +1 Elo | CHC 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.424th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 26th of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 6th of 301522 | Elo rating | 149919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4–1 | 7–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–5 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.