New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rice homered to center (411 feet).3–5
- 6Aranda grounded out to second, Walls scored, Caminero to second, Simpson to third.2–5
- 6Simpson singled to center, Williamson scored, Walls to second.2–4
- 2Simpson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Walls scored, Fortes out at second.2–3
- 1Díaz homered to right center (377 feet), Aranda scored.2–2
- 1Rosario tripled to left, Stanton scored.2–0
- 1Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to right, Judge scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -115 / TB -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Steven Matz: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +41 Elo | NYY 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.4 | Runs allowed | 5.828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.1 | Margin | −1.225th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 305–1 | Road vs home | 1–228th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150812th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301547 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–3 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–3 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6–2 | 8–2–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 21–18 TB in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 39.