Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-4
- Ryan WeathersPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soderstrom singled to right, Muncy scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML ATH +163 / NYY -199
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.8%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -175
- ATH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.4 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −11 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +77 Elo | NYY 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 2.52nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +2.43rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–6 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
| 5th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 149618th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 9–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6–1 | 4–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 6–15 NYY in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.