Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fraley singled to left, Aranda scored, Fraley to second.6–2
- 5Hoerner scored on error, Busch safe at first on throwing error by catcher Feduccia, Busch safe at second on error.6–1
- 5Hoerner doubled to right, Conforto scored.5–1
- 5Conforto doubled to right, Kelly scored, Swanson scored on throwing error by right fielder Fraley and Ballesteros scored, Conforto safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Aranda.4–1
- 3Aranda hit sacrifice fly to left, DeLuca scored.1–1
- 1Hoerner homered to left (369 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML CHC -105 / TB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- TB: Elo 46.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −16 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.727th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.922nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 1–117th of 30 |
| 26th of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 150614th of 30 |
| 5th of 301525 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–7 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4–1 | 8–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–5 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.