New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Rays- Chandler SimpsonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Judge homered to right center (415 feet), Rice scored.4–5
- 8Walls hit sacrifice bunt, Fraley scored, Williamson to second.2–5
- 7Caminero hit sacrifice fly to left, Simpson scored.2–4
- 7Stanton grounded out to second, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.2–3
- 7Bellinger singled to center, Rice scored, Judge to second.1–3
- 2Simpson singled to left, Walls scored.0–3
- 2Palacios grounded out to shortstop, Mullins scored.0–2
- 1Díaz grounded out to second, Simpson scored, Caminero to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -136 / TB +113
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -123
- TB +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −9 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +52 Elo | NYY 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 5.427th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301544 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–5 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7–2 | 9–3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 21–20 TB in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 41.