Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9McMahon walked, Caballero scored on Romano wild pitch, Wells to third on wild pitch by Romano.10–11
- 9Grisham homered to right center (391 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.10–10
- 8Trout homered to left center (445 feet), Frazier scored.10–8
- 7Lowe hit sacrifice fly to right, Moncada scored, Adell to third.8–8
- 6Judge homered to left (398 feet).7–8
- 6Trout homered to left center (421 feet), Frazier scored and Neto scored.7–7
- 5Grisham homered to right center (355 feet), Stanton scored and Rice scored.4–7
- 4Neto walked, Lowe scored, Frazier to second, O'Hoppe to third.4–4
- 4O'Hoppe singled to left, Adell scored, Lowe to second.3–4
- 4Adell singled to left, Soler scored.2–4
- 4Soler doubled to left, Trout scored.1–4
- 2Caballero homered to left (370 feet), Grichuk scored.0–4
- 1Judge homered to left center (456 feet), Goldschmidt scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML LAA +149 / NYY -181
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 63.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -160
- LAA +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 5.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +98 Elo | NYY 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 2.92nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 30 |
| 9th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149716th of 30 |
| 27th of 301457 | Elo rating | 15432nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 6–7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–9 NYY in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.