Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caballero doubled to center, Wells scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.4–5
- 5Trout homered to right center (383 feet), Neto scored.4–3
- 5O'Hoppe homered to left center (427 feet).2–3
- 3Frazier homered to right center (398 feet).1–3
- 2Grisham singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored and Caballero scored.0–3
- 1Judge homered to right (382 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 63%
- ML LAA +157 / NYY -192
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.9%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -169
- LAA +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.9 – 6.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +1 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +107 Elo | NYY 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 4–417th of 30 |
| 5th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149222nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301460 | Elo rating | 15402nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–8 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | — | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 7–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 11–10 NYY in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.