Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sam BachmanPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adell homered to right (356 feet), Frazier scored, Neto scored and Trout scored.11–4
- 7Trout homered to left (446 feet).7–4
- 6Rice homered to center (405 feet).6–4
- 6Lowe singled to center, Grissom scored and Peraza scored, d'Arnaud to second.6–3
- 6Grissom singled to left, Adell scored, Peraza to third.4–3
- 6Peraza doubled to right, Trout scored, Adell to third.3–3
- 3Stanton homered to center (446 feet), Bellinger scored.2–3
- 1Judge homered to left center (410 feet).2–1
- 1Peraza homered to left (375 feet), Adell scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 72%
- ML LAA +244 / NYY -308
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.8%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -260
- LAA +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 6.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +26 | +4 | LAA: Brent Suter: team allows 1.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +77 Elo | NYY 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 68.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 30 |
| 4th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301459 | Elo rating | 15402nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–8 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | — | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 7–9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 11–11 NYY in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.