Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Massey doubled to right, Jensen scored and Tolbert scored.4–13
- 8Grichuk hit sacrifice fly to right, McMahon scored, Bellinger to third.2–13
- 7Escarra tripled to right, Grichuk scored and Caballero scored.2–12
- 7Jensen homered to right (357 feet), Caglianone scored.2–10
- 6Bellinger homered to right center (374 feet), Rosario scored.0–10
- 6Rosario singled to center, Caballero scored.0–8
- 4Bellinger singled to center, Escarra scored.0–7
- 4Escarra doubled to center, Caballero scored.0–6
- 3Rice homered to right (398 feet).0–5
- 3Bellinger homered to right (385 feet), Judge scored.0–4
- 3Rosario homered to left center (390 feet), Escarra scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML KC +139 / NYY -169
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.2%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -150
- KC +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.6 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −15 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +43 Elo | NYY 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 6–518th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148924th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15383rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–9 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–14 | 8–10–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–19 NYY in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 24.