Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3
- Cole RagansPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Grisham homered to right (369 feet), Bellinger scored and Goldschmidt scored.0–7
- 2Rice homered to right (350 feet).0–4
- 1Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Bellinger scored.0–3
- 1Judge homered to center (425 feet), Rice scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 56%
- ML KC +119 / NYY -144
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.6%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -129
- KC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −8 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +67 Elo | NYY 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.911th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +1.06th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 7–510th of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 148927th of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Elo rating | 15413rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–10 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–14 | 9–10–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–20 NYY in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 25.