New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Amed RosarioBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Max FriedPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran singled to center, Story scored.4–1
- 3Rosario hit sacrifice fly to left, Judge scored.4–0
- 1Rosario homered to left center (416 feet), Judge scored and Stanton scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -131 / BOS +109
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.4%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 3.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +1 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +10 Elo | NYY 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 5–624th of 30 |
| 25th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301546 | Elo rating | 151310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–10 | 7–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12–2 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 18–25 BOS in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 43.
- Apr 21NYY 4 @ BOS 0Picked BOS 52%Miss
- Oct 2BOS 0 @ NYY 4PlayoffsPicked NYY 58%Hit
- Oct 1BOS 3 @ NYY 4PlayoffsPicked NYY 64%Hit
- Sep 30BOS 3 @ NYY 1PlayoffsPicked NYY 55%Miss
- Sep 14NYY 4 @ BOS 6Picked BOS 59%Hit
- Sep 13NYY 5 @ BOS 3Picked NYY 58%Hit
- Sep 12NYY 4 @ BOS 1Picked NYY 52%Hit
- Aug 24BOS 2 @ NYY 7Picked NYY 59%Hit