New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Shewmake homered to right center (403 feet).12–4
- 7Diaz homered to left (387 feet).12–3
- 7Caballero homered to left (337 feet).12–2
- 7McMahon grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Chisholm Jr. scored, Escarra out at second.11–2
- 7Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Grichuk scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.10–2
- 7Rice homered to right center (402 feet).9–2
- 6Grisham hit sacrifice fly to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Caballero to second, Escarra to third.8–2
- 6Caballero singled to right, Grichuk scored, Escarra to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.7–2
- 6Stanton singled to center, Rice scored.6–2
- 4Smith grounded out to shortstop, Altuve scored, Walker to second.5–2
- 4Chisholm Jr. homered to right (393 feet).5–1
- 2Diaz singled to right, Altuve scored, Smith to second.4–1
- 2McMahon homered to left (336 feet).4–0
- 1Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Bellinger scored and Rice scored.3–0
- 1Rice grounded into fielder's choice to second, Grisham scored, Bellinger safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Altuve, Judge to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -156 / HOU +129
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- HOU +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −12 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +39 Elo | NYY 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–4 | Road vs home | 7–614th of 30 |
| 24th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 147429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 149220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–10 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–9 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14–2 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 14–6 HOU in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 20.