Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting2-4
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 1Alvarez homered to right center (422 feet), Correa scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 60%
- ML HOU +139 / CLE -168
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.3%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -150
- HOU +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.6 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −12 | HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +44 Elo | CLE 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 8–44th of 30 |
| 30th of 301472 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 20th of 301490 | Elo rating | 151310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–16 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–7 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 11–8 CLE in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.