Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Taylor WardBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rocchio singled to center, Fry scored and Hoskins scored, Schneemann to second.4–8
- 5Ramírez homered to left (379 feet).4–6
- 5Beavers grounded into fielder's choice to second, Alonso scored, Jackson to second, Rodríguez to third.4–5
- 5Ward homered to left (394 feet), Mayo scored and Huff scored.3–5
- 4Rocchio singled to left, Brito scored.0–5
- 4Brito doubled to center, Schneemann scored and Fry scored.0–4
- 4Ramírez homered to left center (408 feet).0–2
- 3Kwan hit sacrifice fly to center, Hedges scored, Rocchio to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML BAL +100 / CLE -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.2 – 3.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +2 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +33 Elo | CLE 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 6–35th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15154th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–12 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–14 CLE in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.