Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taveras singled to center, Alonso scored, Beavers to second.4–3
- 5Fernandez doubled to center, Perdomo scored.4–2
- 5Vargas homered to left center (379 feet), McCann scored and Barrosa scored.3–2
- 3Taveras walked, Ward scored, Basallo to second, Alonso to third.0–2
- 2Basallo homered to center (431 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML ARI +141 / BAL -171
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.2%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -152
- ARI +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +15 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +1 Elo | BAL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Road vs home | 6–412th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 148723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301509 | Elo rating | 149122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–6 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6–2 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–6 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.