Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mets- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moreno doubled to center, Del Castillo scored.7–1
- 8Fernandez grounded out to third, Perdomo scored.6–1
- 8Del Castillo doubled to left, Vargas scored, Perdomo to third.5–1
- 7Barrosa tripled to right, Thomas scored.4–1
- 7Tawa hit sacrifice fly to center, Moreno scored.3–1
- 7Thomas grounded into fielder's choice to first, Fernandez scored, Moreno third.2–1
- 7Moreno doubled to right, Perdomo scored, Fernandez to third.1–1
- 1Robert Jr. homered to center (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML ARI +153 / NYM -186
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.3%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -165
- ARI +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 2.7 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +9 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +23 Elo | NYM 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.57th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 24th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
| 4th of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 149221st of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Elo rating | 151412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4–2 | 5–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 8–14 NYM in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.