Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vientos hit sacrifice fly to right, Robert Jr. scored, Baty to third.7–2
- 8Barrosa doubled to center, Vargas scored and Fernandez scored, Tawa to third.7–1
- 6Baty singled to center, Bichette scored, Robert Jr. to second.5–1
- 2Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored.5–0
- 2Carroll doubled to center, Fernandez scored and Barrosa scored, Marte to third.4–0
- 2Marte singled to right, Vargas scored, Barrosa to second, Fernandez to third.2–0
- 1Moreno hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML ARI +117 / NYM -141
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.6%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -127
- ARI +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −12 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +39 Elo | NYM 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.24th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.65th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 3–12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 149021st of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4–2 | 4–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–14 NYM in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.