Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Adrian Del CastilloBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-5
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Mauricio singled to right, Lindor scored.3–4
- 8Young hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.3–3
- 5Arenado doubled to center, Moreno scored, Del Castillo to third.3–2
- 5Del Castillo singled to right, Carroll and Perdomo scored, Moreno to third.2–2
- 2Lindor doubled to right, Alvarez scored on throwing error by right fielder Carroll, Lindor to third.0–2
- 1Baty hit sacrifice fly to center, Lindor scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML ARI +129 / NYM -156
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -140
- ARI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.1 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +4 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +21 Elo | NYM 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.24th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.75th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
| 4th of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 148524th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–13 NYM in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.