New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benge grounded into fielder's choice to second, Baty scored, Semien out at second.10–3
- 9Baty doubled to left, Robert Jr. scored.9–3
- 8Arraez singled to center, Encarnacion scored, Adames to third.8–3
- 7Vientos singled to right, Bichette scored, Robert Jr. to second.8–2
- 7Robert Jr. singled to center, Lindor scored, Bichette to third.7–2
- 7Alvarez homered to left (401 feet).6–2
- 6Bailey scored on a passed ball by Alvarez, Adames to third on passed ball by Alvarez.5–2
- 6Bailey scored on a passed ball by Alvarez, Adames to third on passed ball by Alvarez.5–2
- 6Adames hit a ground rule double, Bader scored, Bailey to third.5–1
- 4Alvarez homered to center (415 feet).5–0
- 4Semien homered to center (407 feet), Vientos scored.4–0
- 1Semien singled to left, Bichette scored, Vientos to second, Robert Jr. to third.2–0
- 1Bichette singled to center, Lindor scored, Soto to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -126 / SF +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.6%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 3.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +10 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +10 Elo | SF 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.029th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 18th of 291–3 | Road vs home | 1–325th of 29 |
| 24th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 15303rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 149919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 2–3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 2–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 10–10 SF in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.