New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Devers homered to center (404 feet).2–7
- 5Schmitt singled to left, Lee scored, Susac to third.2–6
- 3Bader hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored.2–5
- 3Lee hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramos scored, Arraez to third.2–4
- 2Vientos homered to left (406 feet).2–3
- 1Chapman scored on error, Lee safe at first on error by pitcher Peterson.1–3
- 1Chapman doubled to right, Arraez scored.1–2
- 1Arraez tripled to right, Ramos scored.1–1
- 1Bichette doubled to left, Soto scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -118 / SF -102
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 49.1%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- NYM -107
- SF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −5 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +6 Elo | SF 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 2.330th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.826th of 30 |
| 9th of 181–2 | Road vs home | 0–317th of 17 |
| 24th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 15332nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 149719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | — | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 1–3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 1–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 10–9 SF in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.