New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Tyrone TaylorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting1-4
- Landen RouppPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Taylor singled to right, Baty scored on error, Taylor safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Lee.9–0
- 5Taylor homered to center (419 feet), Baty scored and Vientos scored.8–0
- 5Vientos singled to right, Bichette scored, Baty to third.5–0
- 5Bichette singled to center, Torrens scored.4–0
- 2Torrens grounded out to second, Semien scored, Benge to second.3–0
- 2Vientos scored and Young scored on fielding error by first baseman Encarnacion, Benge safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Chapman, Semien safe at third on error.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML NYM +100 / SF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- SF: Elo 50.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +4 Elo | SF 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.027th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.626th of 30 |
| 16th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 1–425th of 29 |
| 24th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 15293rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301511 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 3–3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 3–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–10 SF in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.