Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5McCann doubled to right, Vargas scored and Marte scored.5–4
- 5Vargas singled to left, Thomas scored, Marte to second.3–4
- 5Marte singled to left, Fernandez scored and Tawa scored, Thomas to second.2–4
- 1Marsh homered to left center (372 feet), Schwarber scored and Harper scored.0–4
- 1Harper doubled to right, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML ARI +153 / PHI -186
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.7%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -165
- ARI +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.5 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +4 | ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +54 Elo | PHI 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.524th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 3–315th of 30 |
| 5th of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 146629th of 30 |
| 14th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15284th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–5 | 3–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 7–4–2 | 6–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 14–13 PHI in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 27.