Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Rockies- Brett SullivanBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Turner doubled to left, Marsh scored, Crawford to third.2–1
- 3B. Sullivan singled to right, Johnston scored.1–1
- 1Schwarber doubled to left, Turner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 70%
- ML PHI -267 / COL +214
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.6%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -228
- COL +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.9 – 4.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −3 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +120 Elo | PHI 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.623rd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.922nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 29 |
| 27th of 301469 | Opponent Elo | 15109th of 30 |
| 4th of 301535 | Elo rating | 140030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | — |
| Underdog | — | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1–1 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1–1 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 17–4 COL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 21.