Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Schwarber homered to right (460 feet).10–1
- 4Castro grounded out to second, Moniak scored, Rumfield to second.9–1
- 3Bohm reached on infield single to shortstop, Turner scored, Harper to third.9–0
- 2Harper homered to right center (421 feet).8–0
- 1Turner singled to right, Realmuto scored.7–0
- 1Marsh homered to right center (454 feet), Bohm scored and Stott scored.6–0
- 1Stott doubled to right, Harper scored, Bohm to third.3–0
- 1Bohm singled to center, Schwarber scored and Turner scored, Harper to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML PHI -186 / COL +153
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -165
- COL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +18 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +89 Elo | PHI 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.017th of 30 |
| 27th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 3.57th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 25th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 150811th of 30 |
| 4th of 301532 | Elo rating | 140230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | — |
| Underdog | — | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1–1 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1–1 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 16–4 COL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 20.